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US Elections 2024

5 minutes read

US Elections 2024

5 minutes read

With less than 48 hours remaining until the U.S. election, the political environment is tense and unpredictable. Over 77.6 million Americans have already cast their ballots, a significant portion of the electorate, signaling heightened engagement in this election cycle. Recent polling data reveals that Vice President Kamala Harris holds a notable lead over Donald Trump among early voters, particularly in critical battleground states. According to a survey conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, Harris has an 8% advantage among those who have already voted. However, the race is far from decided, as Trump maintains a lead among individuals who have yet to vote but are likely to do so before Election Day.

The division between early voters and those who plan to vote on Election Day sets up a highly competitive and unpredictable final phase. The poll underscores the different dynamics in several swing states. Harris holds a slight lead in three of these states, while Trump is ahead in one, and several others are still too close to call. These states will play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the election, making the final hours of campaigning crucial for both candidates.

Harris has been focusing her efforts on mobilizing voters in key states such as Michigan, where the electorate includes a significant number of Arab American and Muslim-American voters. These groups largely supported the Biden-Harris ticket in 2020, but many have since expressed dissatisfaction with the administration’s policies, particularly regarding foreign conflicts like the war in Gaza. In a recent rally in Michigan, Harris addressed this issue, pledging to do all she can to help end the conflict in Gaza. Her focus on foreign policy and domestic unity is a strategic move to regain the trust of these critical voting blocs, which could prove essential in deciding the outcome in Michigan, a state that has historically swung between both major parties.

In contrast, Trump’s strategy has focused on energizing his base in states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. At his rallies, Trump has continued to appeal to voters with his populist rhetoric, emphasizing issues like immigration and law enforcement. In Pennsylvania, he reiterated his strong stance on border security and took the opportunity to criticize the press, further amplifying his narrative of being an outsider fighting against what he calls a corrupt political system. This rhetoric has resonated with his supporters, many of whom continue to back his claims of election fraud and a “stolen election” from 2020.

In addition to his focus on immigration, Trump has also indicated that he would consider bringing Robert F. Kennedy Jr. into his administration to work on health policy, specifically issues related to public health and environmental regulation. This has raised eyebrows among political observers, as Kennedy has been known for his controversial views, particularly regarding vaccinations and public health measures. Trump’s openness to such proposals reflects his willingness to adopt unorthodox positions, which have become a hallmark of his political style.

One of the most surprising developments in the final days of the election has been the shift in polling in Iowa, a state traditionally considered a Republican stronghold. According to a poll conducted by Selzer & Co. for the Des Moines Register, Harris is leading Trump by 11 points in the state. This marks a dramatic reversal from earlier polls that showed Trump with a comfortable lead. Political experts suggest that if Harris can remain competitive in a state like Iowa, it could indicate a broader shift in the political landscape, potentially reshaping the electoral map.

Early voting has also been a major factor in this election. As of November 2, over 71.5 million Americans had already cast their votes, with early voting numbers surpassing 50% of the total votes cast in the 2020 election in 14 states. Georgia, in particular, has seen an exceptionally high turnout, with early voting surpassing 80% of the 2020 total, reflecting the intensity of voter engagement this year. This high turnout suggests that voter enthusiasm remains strong on both sides, despite the polarizing nature of the campaigns.

However, legal challenges and concerns about voter suppression continue to loom over the election. In Iowa, for example, a federal judge has ruled that the state can challenge the validity of hundreds of ballots from potential noncitizens. Critics argue that these efforts disproportionately target newly naturalized citizens, potentially disenfranchising voters who have recently gained the right to vote. Such legal battles could play a significant role in shaping the final outcome, particularly in closely contested states where every vote counts.

The U.S. election remains highly competitive, with both Harris and Trump working to secure the crucial swing states. While Harris appears to have the edge among early voters, Trump’s ability to rally his base and draw last-minute voters to the polls could significantly impact the final result. As the nation heads into the final hours of voting, the outcome remains uncertain, with both candidates having a path to victory depending on voter turnout and the results in key battleground states.

 

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