Key Points
- Chinese assertiveness and initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative draw attention from international players.
- The India-Pakistan ceasefire agreement is seen as a significant accomplishment, fostering hope for future dialogue and cooperation.
- The complexities of the India-Russia partnership and US concerns over defense technology are discussed, stressing the need for balance in the US-India relationship.
- South Asia’s relevance in global politics is underscored, emphasizing the importance of dialogue and cooperation for regional stability.
In a candid and insightful interview with NHS Media, Elizabeth Threlkeld, a senior fellow and director of the South Asia Program at the Stimston Center, sheds light on the developments and complexities in South Asia’s geostrategic dynamics. With vast experience in international relations and a background in the State Department, Threlkeld provides valuable insights into the evolving relationships between major powers and their impact on the region.
Threlkeld delves into the ongoing discussions about the strategic stability in South Asia, specifically concerning India’s defense modernization and its increasing defense budget. She points out that it is essential to view South Asia as part of Southern Asia, which includes China in the mix, given its central role in the current era of geostrategic competition between the US and China. Threlkeld acknowledges China’s significant modernization drive, particularly in its nuclear program, and emphasizes the implications of the Strategic Chain, where countries respond to the actions of their rivals. She also highlights the dyadic rivalries between India and Pakistan, as well as India and China.
Discussing Chinese assertiveness, Threlkeld acknowledges China’s growing presence in the region, primarily through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and its expansion in the South China Sea. She acknowledges the concerns about China’s debt trap diplomacy and Gray Zone tactics, which have raised eyebrows among international players. Threlkeld points out that this assertiveness has drawn attention from Washington and its allies, leading to a focus on understanding the trajectory of China’s actions.
Regarding South Asia’s relevance in global politics, Threlkeld stresses the importance of expanding the idea of the region to include China. While she acknowledges the focus on the Indo-Pacific, she emphasizes that South Asia’s strategic significance should not be underestimated, especially with three nuclear-armed powers in the region. The evolving alignments and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific and Central Asia underscore the complexity of the region’s dynamics.
Reflecting on the recent India-Pakistan ceasefire agreement, Threlkeld lauds it as a significant accomplishment worth celebrating. However, she recognizes that it may not be enough to address all the tensions between the two nations. Nevertheless, the successful backchannel talks leading to this agreement offer hope for future dialogue and cooperation, which could be built upon in the coming years.
On the topic of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and China’s involvement in West Asia, Threlkeld clarifies that the US has not entirely left the region, and China’s presence is not a straightforward replacement. While the US focus on the Indo-Pacific is evident, China’s interests in West Asia remain primarily economic, as seen through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative.
Addressing the India-Russia partnership and US concerns, Threlkeld highlights the complexities of the relationship. The US aims to support India’s defense industrial base while also expressing concerns about Russia’s involvement in providing defense technology to India and other countries. She points out the need for balance in handling these interests to foster progress in the US-India partnership.
Elizabeth Threlkeld’s insights provide a comprehensive understanding of South Asia’s geostrategic landscape. From India’s defense modernization and rising Chinese threat to China’s assertiveness in the region, she navigates the complexities with astute clarity. The interview sheds light on South Asia’s evolving relevance in global politics, the significance of the India-Pakistan ceasefire, and the implications of US withdrawal and China’s role in West Asia. As South Asia continues to be at the heart of major power rivalries, Threlkeld’s analysis underscores the importance of continued dialogue and understanding to foster stability and cooperation in the region.
