In a recent Podcast at NHS Media, Dr Qamar Cheema Spoke about how South Asia has witnessed a significant shift in its geopolitical landscape.
Key points
- India and the United States are deepening their diplomatic relations, through high-level meetings and planned engagements, marking a significant shift in South Asia’s geopolitical landscape.
- Pakistan faces a complex situation with strained political relations and increasing security concerns due to recurring attacks by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the emergence of new actors like Baloch militants and the Afghan Taliban.
- A multitude of militant organizations operating within the border areas of Pakistan, the use of U.S.-made weaponry in attacks, and concerns about how American weapons found their way into Afghanistan, complicating regional dynamics.
Dr. Qamar Cheema stated that India and the United States have drawn closer, with a series of meetings and diplomatic engagements following the G20 summit. High-level exchanges, including President Biden’s visit to India and External Affairs Minister Dr Jaishankar’s trip to the United States, underscore the deepening relationship between the two nations. Plans for further U.S. visits to India, particularly the upcoming 2+2 dialogue, signal an intent to strengthen this partnership.
However, Pakistan finds itself in a complex and challenging diplomatic position. Political relations have been strained, partly due to Prime Minister Imran Khan’s narrative of regime change. While at the security level, Pakistan faces more immediate and pressing concerns. The recurrent attacks by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have not only altered the security landscape but have introduced new actors into the region and Baloch militants and the Afghan Taliban are now playing prominent roles, which i further complicating the security situation.
Dr. Cheema explained that the situation is further complicated by the fact that Pakistan’s counter-terrorism authority has identified a staggering 78 militant organizations operating within its borders. These groups have targeted key installations and even security personnel. What adds to Pakistan’s challenges is the origin of the weapons and ammunition used in these attacks. The arsenal includes M4, AK74, RPG7, M16, and more – all of which point to U.S.-made weaponry.
He raised the question of how these American weapons found their way into Afghanistan. Some speculate that upon their exit from Afghanistan, U.S. forces left substantial quantities of arms and ammunition behind. It is now feared that these weapons are not only in the possession of the Afghan Taliban but are being sold in Afghan markets.
This situation serves multiple purposes for Pakistan. It draws attention to the precarious state of affairs in Afghanistan, characterized by lawlessness, unrest, and the antagonism of the Afghan Taliban towards Pakistan. The added complication of Pakistan’s deportation of illegal Afghan refugees has further strained relations between the two neighbours.
Dr. Cheema further added that Reports suggest the United States has ordered the non-deportation of 25,000 Afghan refugees from Pakistan, to have them resettled in the U.S. This development presents Pakistan with a tactical advantage and a potential narrative to exploit.
He presumed that at the strategic level, Pakistan’s military establishment may endeavour to bring the issue to the forefront. This could manifest as public demonstrations, sit-ins, and protests, similar to previous occurrences. Such actions would signify that American weaponry is being employed against Pakistan by the Afghan Taliban and other terror groups.
Dr Cheema stressed that it is critical to understand what measures can Pakistan adopt in this scenario. He suggested that it is essential to move beyond merely blaming the U.S., Afghanistan, or India. Pakistan needs to formulate a comprehensive approach to address its security challenges, and this necessitates parliamentary involvement and policy approval.
Dr. Cheema discussed that the drawback often lies in the lack of a strategic and comprehensive approach, where policies are well-defined and thoroughly implemented. It is also crucial to evaluate Pakistan’s alignment within the region. Has Pakistan firmly joined the Chinese bloc, or does it prefer a more balanced and nuanced approach? He said that Afghanistan’s reluctance to comply with Pakistan’s demands, coupled with the involvement of the Afghan Taliban, presents multifaceted challenges. While military power remains an option to address the situation, diplomatic negotiations with the Afghan government are more favourable.
The accusation that Afghan insurgents employ American weapons is a serious one, necessitating a response from the United States, regardless of the veracity of the claims. The evolving dynamics between TTP, Afghan Taliban, and their impact on U.S.-Pakistan relations require astute observation by the Pakistani establishment.
He concluded by saying that Pakistan stands at a delicate crossroads, facing potential long-term consequences it seeks to avoid. The nation’s response will significantly shape its future narrative as it navigates the complex regional developments ahead. This includes the impact of key upcoming events, such as the visits by Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin, which could provide India with enhanced military support and access to the defence sector. The outcome of these developments will undoubtedly influence and shape the emerging regional narrative.
