India and Pakistan have a long and complex history, marked by conflict, diplomacy, and strategic maneuvering. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a multilateral forum that includes both countries, offers a unique platform where these dynamics play out. Recently, there has been significant discussion around India’s participation in the upcoming SCO Council of Heads of Government meeting in Islamabad.ย
Key Points:
- The invitation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend the SCOโs Council of Heads of Government meeting in Islamabad is viewed with skepticism. India may avoid attending to prevent legitimizing Pakistan as a normal country in the eyes of the international community.
- ย India has developed a long-term narrative portraying Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism. This narrative is central to Indiaโs foreign policy and domestic politics, particularly under Modiโs leadership, to consolidate his voter base.
- Indiaโs cautious stance towards the SCO is influenced by its tense relationship with China. India views the SCO as a Chinese-led initiative that may not align with its strategic interests, especially given ongoing border tensions.
- Despite representing a significant portion of the worldโs population and GDP, the SCOโs impact is limited due to its focus on security issues rather than economic cooperation. Indiaโs participation in the SCO is seen as part of a broader geopolitical strategy rather than a commitment to the organizationโs objectives.
Pakistan’s invitation to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend the October SCO meeting in Islamabad is more than a formal gesture. It is a strategic move that carries significant symbolic weight. If Modi were to attend, it would send a message of normalization between India and Pakistan, suggesting that despite their differences, both nations can engage on a multilateral platform. However, this is not a message that India seems eager to convey at this moment.
For India, attending such a meeting would contradict its long-standing narrative that Pakistan is a state sponsor of terrorism. India’s diplomatic and political stance has been to isolate Pakistan internationally, framing it as a pariah state that is unworthy of engagement. Modiโs attendance could potentially undermine this narrative, which India has carefully crafted over the years.
India’s approach to Pakistan in multilateral forums has often been one of deliberate disengagement. For instance, during Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s visit to India, Indian Foreign Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar notably avoided a handshake, opting instead for a mere wave. This gesture, though seemingly small, was a calculated snub, emphasizing India’s reluctance to engage with Pakistan on equal terms.
Similarly, India has previously used excuses to avoid high-level meetings with Pakistani officials in international forums. For example, Dr. Jaishankar cited parliamentary commitments as a reason for not attending a meeting in Kazakhstan, a move that was widely interpreted as another form of diplomatic snubbing.
For India, relations with Pakistan are increasingly viewed through a domestic lens rather than a foreign policy issue. Pakistan has become a domestic political tool, used to rally nationalist sentiment and consolidate voter support. Engaging with Pakistan, particularly in a way that could be perceived as conciliatory, risks alienating a significant portion of Modiโs voter base, which has been cultivated through a narrative of strong leadership against terrorism and cross-border threats.
Over the past decade, Modi has invested heavily in creating an image of India as a country that does not bow to international pressure, especially from Pakistan. This investment includes military engagements, such as ceasefire agreements along the Line of Control (LOC), and diplomatic moves that underscore Indiaโs position as a regional power that is not swayed by its neighborโs actions.
The SCO is often seen as a platform for multilateral engagement, with a focus on security, economic cooperation, and cultural exchange among its member states, including Russia, China, and Central Asian countries. However, for India, the SCO presents a dilemma. On one hand, it is a forum that could enhance India’s influence in the Eurasian region. On the other hand, its close ties with China and Russia, both of which have complex relationships with India, make it a challenging space for India to navigate.
India’s participation in the SCO is further complicated by its rivalry with China. The ongoing border tensions between India and China have made any form of multilateral cooperation difficult. India’s strategic calculus now involves balancing its participation in the SCO with its broader geopolitical interests, particularly its relationships with the United States and other Western powers.
As the October meeting approaches, all eyes will be on whether Prime Minister Modi will accept Pakistan’s invitation. His decision will have far-reaching implications, not just for India-Pakistan relations, but also for the future of the SCO as a platform for regional cooperation.
If Modi chooses to attend, it could mark a significant shift in Indiaโs approach to Pakistan, signaling a willingness to engage despite ongoing tensions. However, this seems unlikely given the current political climate in India and Modi’s established strategy of sidelining Pakistan in international forums.
On the other hand, if Modi declines the invitation, it will reinforce the existing narrative of Indiaโs refusal to engage with Pakistan, further isolating Pakistan within the region. It would also suggest that India views the SCO less as a platform for genuine multilateralism and more as a tool for advancing its own geopolitical interests.
In conclusion, the upcoming SCO meeting in Islamabad is more than just another diplomatic event. It is a test of Indiaโs strategic priorities and its willingness to engage with Pakistan in a meaningful way. Whether Modi attends or not, the decision will reflect the broader trends in India-Pakistan relations and the shifting dynamics of regional geopolitics in South Asia.