The BRICS bloc, initially comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has become increasingly influential in the global geopolitical landscape. The recent expansion to include emerging economies like Iran and Saudi Arabia has elevated BRICS’s share of global GDP to an impressive 36%. As the bloc convenes for its upcoming summit in Russia, discussions surrounding Pakistan’s bid for membership and India’s response are particularly significant.
Pakistan’s interest in joining BRICS is fundamentally rooted in its dire economic situation. The nation, once enjoying a GDP growth rate of nearly 5% in 2022, has seen this figure plummet to just over 2% in 2023-24. Contributing factors include a total debt-to-GDP ratio nearing 75% and a noticeable decline in foreign investments. The underlying causes of these issues stem from political instability and declining public confidence in governance. For Pakistan, BRICS represents not just a political alliance but a potential economic lifeline. The New Development Bank (NDB), established by BRICS to finance infrastructure projects in developing countries, is particularly appealing due to its less stringent conditions compared to the IMF. While the IMF often demands fiscal adjustments and structural reforms as prerequisites for assistance, the NDB allows borrowing in local currencies and processes loans more quickly, which is crucial for Pakistan given its volatile foreign reserves.
Moreover, the NDB has the capacity to fund projects that align with Pakistan’s pressing needs, such as energy and food production, sectors that could significantly benefit from stronger trade ties with BRICS nations. The bloc collectively contributes to 40% of global oil production and 42% of grain production, making it an essential partner for Pakistan’s economic recovery. In a time when Western-led financial institutions have proven less accommodating, BRICS’s approach could enable Pakistan to reduce its reliance on these traditional sources of support.
However, the path to BRICS membership is fraught with challenges, primarily due to India’s likely opposition. The historical tensions between India and Pakistan complicate Pakistan’s application process. New Delhi views both China and Pakistan as unified strategic threats. This perception was reinforced when Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar expressed objections to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor at the UN General Assembly. This critical infrastructure project passes through territories claimed by India, further straining bilateral relations.
Despite these tensions, India is facing its own challenges. The recent geopolitical landscape has seen friendly governments in the region shift, potentially prompting New Delhi to reconsider its stance towards Pakistan. While India perceives Pakistan as a rival, the prospect of normalizing relations could serve its strategic interests, especially in the context of maintaining stability in South Asia. Supporting Pakistan’s BRICS membership might provide an avenue for India to engage constructively with its neighbor, fostering trust and opening doors for dialogue.
The upcoming BRICS summit serves as a pivotal moment for all parties involved. It represents an opportunity not only for the bloc to solidify its position as a counterweight to Western influence but also for member nations to explore new avenues for cooperation. As articulated by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, the bloc aims to enhance the inclusion of developing nations in global decision-making processes, echoing sentiments expressed by BRICS foreign ministers about the importance of engaging with the Global South. Pakistan’s inclusion could allow it to advocate for greater representation, potentially revitalizing its international standing and fostering economic growth through enhanced trade relations.
Additionally, the geopolitical tensions between the West and strategic rivals, including Russia and China, have heightened BRICS’s importance as a coalition that can challenge the existing international order. The bloc’s emphasis on strengthening ties among its members aligns with a broader desire to assert the influence of emerging economies on the global stage. As countries like Iran seek to deepen their connections within BRICS to counteract Western sanctions, the bloc’s expansion is poised to shape the future of international relations significantly.
In this context, the dynamics of the BRICS summit could create a framework for India and Pakistan to engage in a more meaningful dialogue. The multilateral nature of BRICS, combined with the presence of mutual partners like Russia, could facilitate conversations that have long been stagnant within traditional South Asian forums such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). Such engagement may provide a necessary platform for easing tensions and establishing a foundation for future collaboration.
The outcomes of the BRICS summit will be pivotal in shaping the trajectory of Pakistan’s economic recovery, India’s strategic positioning, and the overall dynamics of international relations among emerging economies. While the path ahead is fraught with challenges, the evolving geopolitical landscape offers new opportunities for engagement, cooperation, and growth that could redefine the relationships between these key players in the Global South.