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Shifting Alliances: Bangladesh’s Political Transition and the Triangular Dynamics with India and Pakistan

7 minutes read

Shifting Alliances: Bangladesh’s Political Transition and the Triangular Dynamics with India and Pakistan

7 minutes read

Just a year ago, Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina referred to the India-Bangladesh relationship as being in a “golden period.” Over the past decade, both nations had fortified their ties by addressing shared challenges such as militancy, resolving a complex border agreement, and signing various infrastructure and power deals. However, this harmonious period ended abruptly in August 2024 when Sheikh Hasina’s government collapsed amidst student-led protests, marking a turning point in regional dynamics.

The collapse of Sheikh Hasina’s government has strained the previously robust India-Bangladesh partnership. Many in Bangladesh accuse India of supporting Hasina, whom they regard as corrupt and authoritarian. Conversely, some in India allege that the new government in Dhaka condones attacks on Hindu minorities and aligns with anti-India factions. This mutual distrust marks a significant departure from the previous decade of cooperation.

India played a pivotal role in Bangladesh’s independence in 1971 and signed a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation in 1972 under Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Hasina’s father. Yet, the relationship has often been tumultuous, with periods of cooperation interspersed with rivalry. Anti-India sentiment has periodically emerged in Bangladesh, fueled by accusations of economic exploitation and disputes over shared water resources.

Sheikh Hasina’s tenure saw a resurgence in strong bilateral ties, but her increasingly autocratic governance alienated many Bangladeshis. Her ouster has reignited anti-India sentiment, with recent attacks on Hindu minorities reflecting a deep-seated nationalist backlash against perceived Indian interference. The new interim government under Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has moved swiftly to protect minorities, signaling a nuanced approach to addressing these tensions.

For over 15 years, Bangladesh-Pakistan relations remained frosty under Hasina, with limited diplomatic engagement and suspended people-to-people contact. However, her departure has rekindled hopes for normalization. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has expressed interest in working with the Yunus-led government to deepen ties. The student-led protests that toppled Hasina’s regime were partly fueled by nationalist and anti-India sentiment, creating an opening for improved Dhaka-Islamabad relations.

The shared cultural and religious values between Pakistan and Bangladesh offer a foundation for rebuilding ties. Pakistan has advocated for easing visa restrictions, resuming direct flights, and revitalizing trade, cultural exchanges, and the dormant Joint Economic Commission. These measures could foster a win-win partnership, emphasizing mutual benefits rather than historical grievances.

The Indian media, however, has expressed alarm at the warming ties between Pakistan and Bangladesh. Reports of Bangladesh purchasing ammunition from Pakistan, holding events commemorating Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah, and proposals for a nuclear treaty have been met with exaggerated speculation. India’s apprehensions reflect its strategic loss of Sheikh Hasina, a staunch ally, and its unease over Bangladesh’s shifting geopolitical stance.

The current situation echoes earlier periods of India-Bangladesh tension. In 1974, Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi viewed with suspicion Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s participation in the Islamic Summit in Lahore, which she believed hinted at a pro-Pakistan tilt. Similarly, Indian apprehensions about Bangladesh’s warming ties with Pakistan during BNP-led governments reveal longstanding concerns over regional realignments.

India’s apprehensions about the Yunus government’s perceived tilt towards Pakistan underscore the persistent insecurities in its regional strategy. Despite this, Bangladesh continues to prioritize its national interests. India’s objections to initiatives such as the resumption of direct flights between Dhaka and Karachi or cultural collaborations may hinder progress but cannot entirely prevent a thaw in relations between Dhaka and Islamabad.

For Pakistan, the focus should remain on strengthening ties with Bangladesh based on shared interests. Trade, investment, and cultural exchanges offer low-hanging fruits to rebuild trust. Supporting Bangladesh’s sovereignty and addressing its long-standing water-sharing disputes with India could also foster goodwill.

While India’s influence on Bangladesh is significant due to shared borders and economic ties, Pakistan must approach this renewed relationship without framing it as a counter to India. Instead, Islamabad should emphasize cooperation, unity, and mutual respect to build a sustainable partnership.

The fall of Sheikh Hasina has reshaped South Asia’s geopolitical landscape. The erosion of India’s strategic leverage in Bangladesh and the warming ties between Dhaka and Islamabad present both challenges and opportunities. As regional players reassess their strategies, fostering cooperation and mutual respect will be crucial to ensuring stability and progress in this complex and interconnected region.

 

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