Ambassador Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhary Former Foreign Secretary of Pakistan had a conversation with NHS Media regarding Ambassador Aizaz’s recent article, in which he highlighted the overlooked possibility of a nuclear war in the region. The interview delved into several key points addressing the probability of nuclear war and the current state of affairs between Pakistan and India.
Key Points
- The absence of harmonious bilateral ties between Pakistan and India raised doubts about true strategic stability in the region.
- Heightened risk due to nuclear capabilities highlights the need for immediate global attention.
- The presence of dormant diplomatic communication channels underscored the vital importance of effective dialogue to address underlying issues.
The interview began by exploring the reasons behind the persistent probability of a nuclear conflict. While responding to the question related to strategic stability Ambassador Aizaz responded by emphasizing that strategic stability is achieved when both nations possess parity and recognize each other’s vulnerabilities and retaliation capabilities. However, he stressed that true strategic stability requires harmonious bilateral relations, which currently do not exist between India and Pakistan. He contested the notion of existing strategic stability and underscored the need to resolve bilateral tensions, including the Kashmir issue. He expressed concern about the risk-prone environment in the region, given both countries’ nuclear capabilities, urging the world not to ignore this dangerous situation.
Regarding conventional asymmetry and surgical strikes, Ambassador Aizaz explained that India’s doctrine of Cold Start reflects its belief in the existence of a limited conflict space under the nuclear umbrella. To counter this, Pakistan developed low-range missiles, often referred to as tactical nuclear weapons. This led to Pakistan’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, contributing to heightened regional tensions. The interview also discussed India’s 2019 attack, noting that India framed it as a reaction rather than an action, leading to a subdued international response due to the global threat of terrorism.
The conversation shifted to the diplomatic hotline between the Foreign Secretaries of Pakistan and India. Ambassador Aizaz revealed that despite the hotline’s installation, it remains dormant due to India’s unwillingness to communicate. He contrasted this with the ongoing communication between military representatives, highlighting the need for dialogue and conflict resolution.
When discussing the number of nuclear weapons, Ambassador Aizaz cautioned against relying on estimates, emphasizing that precise figures remain undisclosed by the countries. He acknowledged the widespread belief in roughly equal nuclear stockpiles but cautioned against treating this as fact.
The interview then touched on the 2005 Civil Nuclear Agreement between India and the US. Ambassador Aizaz highlighted the irony of this agreement, given that the Nuclear Suppliers Group was established to curb India’s nuclear ambitions. He discussed India’s subsequent deals and the perception that India’s nuclear proliferation was indirectly sanctioned, noting the changing dynamics under initiatives like AUCUS.
Turning to the future, Ambassador Aizaz stressed Pakistan’s commitment to nuclear safety and security. He contrasted Pakistan’s responsible nuclear state approach with India’s more expansive targets. While Pakistan aims for deterrence and halting aggression, limited conflicts persist. He urged India and the world to comprehend the potential dangers and advocated for responsible behaviour, non-discriminatory standards, and the pursuit of strategic stability through harmonious relations and balanced power dynamics.
