NHS Media recently held an interview with Professor Dr Qandil Abbas, an Associate Professor in the School of Politics and International Relations (SPIR) at Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad. His expertise lies in Foreign Policy and Iran’s politics. During the interview, Dr Qandill addressed the intricate issues surrounding the discontinuation of the Iran-Pakistan gas oil pipeline.
Key Points
- The Iran-Pakistan gas oil pipeline once envisioned as a ‘peace pipeline,’ now stands as a symbol of conflict and missed opportunities.
- As Pakistan navigates economic challenges and regional pressures, the unresolved pipeline project raises questions about the country’s energy security and foreign policy.
- Amidst missed deadlines and economic constraints, Pakistan’s political leaders must prioritize practical solutions over declaring the project impossible.
- The shadows of historical agreements and unfulfilled targets loom large, as Pakistan’s attempts to boost trade and cooperation with Iran face uncertain prospects.
Dr Qandil was of the view that the pipeline, originally termed the “Peace Pipeline,” was envisioned to enhance regional stability and harmony through energy cooperation. However, over the past few decades, the project’s completion has been marred by conflicts, raising concerns about its impact on bilateral and regional relations.
Dr Qandil highlighted the potential consequences for Pakistan if the project does not materialize, including the possibility of international legal disputes. Reports suggest that Pakistan could face a $18 billion penalty if it fails to meet the March 2024 deadline, with a daily penalty of $1 million. Interestingly, Iran has not openly discussed this penalty, leaving Pakistan to address the issue.
He explored the history of missed deadlines and the economic and international pressures facing Pakistan. Iran has completed its part of the pipeline, spanning over 20,775 km, but Pakistan’s challenges include economic constraints, sanctions against Iran, regional pressures, and the Saudi-Iran rivalry.
Pakistan’s recent IMF deal and political uncertainties further complicate the project’s future. While external pressures hamper progress, Dr Qandil emphasized the importance of finding solutions instead of labelling the task as impossible. He noted that the recent visit of Iran’s Foreign Minister to Pakistan led to discussions on dealing with American sanctions and establishing economic relations.
He also discussed the India factor. Originally the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline, India’s withdrawal in 2009 impacted Pakistan’s plans. Dr Qandil recounted the historical context and Pakistan People’s Party’s (PPP) involvement, highlighting that despite strategic agreements, the project remains uncompleted.
Bilawal Bhutto’s efforts mirror the PPP’s engagement, with recent strategic trade agreements aiming for ambitious targets. Pakistan’s dialogue with Iran has consistently centred on achieving a $5 billion trade exchange, but actual progress remains modest at $2 billion. He pondered the uncertain fate of this project and its future shape.
Regarding India and China’s interest, Dr Qandil expressed Pakistan’s missed opportunities. The energy crisis persists, and he criticized the lack of political will to address it. He compared India’s approach to US sanctions, which yielded a waiver for oil trade with Iran. In contrast, Pakistan’s efforts in this regard seem insufficient.
In conclusion, Dr Qandeel enquired into the complexities, challenges, and missed opportunities surrounding the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. As the project’s future hangs in the balance, it reflects larger issues within Pakistan’s energy landscape and foreign policy priorities.
