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Escalating Militant Violence: A Growing Concern in Pakistan

3 minutes read

Escalating Militant Violence: A Growing Concern in Pakistan

3 minutes read

In a recent interview with NHS Media, Mr. Abdul Basit who is a Senior Associate Fellow, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Singapore, addressed the topics of militancy and upcoming elections in Pakistan.
Key Point:

  • There has been a notable increase in the intensity and geographical reach of militant attacks in Pakistan, with violence levels rising substantially over the past few years.
  • The emergence and prominence of ISKP as a militant group in Pakistan pose a significant security challenge, as they seek safe havens after facing pressure in Afghanistan.
  • The Taliban’s takeover in Afghanistan has contributed to the rise of militancy in Pakistan and disrupted counterterrorism efforts.
  • Pakistan has experienced a loss of momentum in its counterterrorism efforts, and there is a need for better institutional development, intelligence, and a proactive approach.
  • The conflict in Pakistan is asymmetric, where conventional and numerical superiority is less relevant compared to the importance of narratives, policies, and addressing root causes of militancy.

He expressed concerns about the increasing intensity and geographical reach of militant attacks, highlighting a regrouping of militant groups in recent years. The violence levels, once under control from 2015 to 2020, have substantially increased, with violence in Pakistan rising to 73%. This multifaceted threat involves insurgents transitioning from tribal to middle-class backgrounds, adopting extreme tactics, and using savvy propaganda on platforms like social media.

Mr. Basit emphasized the growing threat of ISKP (Islamic State Khorasan Province), which has sought refuge in Pakistan after facing pressure in Afghanistan. ISKP has been involved in various attacks in Pakistan, including the recent Mastung attack on September 28th. With elections approaching, these groups may target election rallies to assert their presence.

He also mentioned the emergence of a new group called Tehreek e Jihad Pakistan (TJP), which is expanding and opening new fronts. Mr. Basit attributed the rise in militancy to the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan and counterproductive peace talks. He criticized Pakistan’s shift from proactive to reactive counterterrorism and suggested a need for a major rethinking of counterterrorism strategies.

Regarding the failure of the strategic community to gauge the situation in Afghanistan, he argued that the hasty US withdrawal from Afghanistan had unintended consequences. While some anticipated the consequences to some extent, the rapid emergence of threats like the TTP (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan) was difficult to predict. Pakistan has taken various steps, but none have proven effective in dealing with the current situation.

Mr. Basit emphasized that Pakistan’s fundamental challenge is a homegrown threat resulting from flawed policies toward Afghanistan, rather than hostile foreign agencies. He noted the loss of momentum in counterterrorism efforts, emphasizing the need for institutional development and better intelligence to address radicalization and read trends effectively. He criticized political engineering and prioritizing power over addressing the root causes of militancy.

In conclusion, Mr. Abdul Basit highlighted that the conflict in Pakistan is asymmetric, where conventional and numerical superiority becomes irrelevant. He emphasized the importance of narratives, policies, and avoiding a crusader approach. He called for a focus on regaining momentum, allowing democracy to evolve organically, and proactive roles for intelligence agencies while avoiding political manipulation.

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